scenario study on the future of agriculture and the rural world
The Scenar 2020 study aims at identifying of future trends and driving forces that will be the framework for the European agricultural and rural economy on the horizon of 2020. LEI contributed the economic analyses from global to regional scale by using their quantitative economic models (LEITAP, ESIM, CAPRI) in combination with detailed data analyses at the regional level.
Scenar 2020 provides a systematic review of the primary variables that rural and agricultural policies have to take into account. These are:
- the rural demographic patterns
- the agricultural technology
- the agricultural markets
- the natural and social constraints on land use that are likely to exist in 2020.
The method used is to build a reference scenario ('baseline') that is based on an analysis of trends from 1990 to 2005, which is projected forward to 2020; the trend analysis provides a substantiated basis for determining the long-term driving forces that is reflected in the reference scenario. It is assumed that economic, agricultural and environmental policy may cause an inflection in these trends, so these are studied as a second level set of driving forces, also to be taken into account in the scenario exercise. The relative importance between various policy frameworks is understood by comparing two alternative – or 'counterfactual' – scenarios ('liberalisation' and 'regionalisation') to the reference scenario.
The comparison between scenarios occurs in two steps:
- the first step is a modelling exercise that analyses the likely outcome of each scenario using simulation models and other quantitative analyses. Where appropriate and necessary, these in-depth scenario analyses are complemented by qualitative analyses and expert judgement. The result is a description about how each scenario is expressed in spatial terms, across the EU-27, and in some case extended to the candidate countries for accession.
- The second step is a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis, which is applied to each scenario in order to understand the implications in the following domains: demographic developments, dynamics of rural economies, and the future of the agricultural economy (specifically in terms of farm structures, production systems, and farm population demography). This occurs through the definition of 'typical' regions; such 'typical' regions are characterised by similar responses to the simulated factors.
This twelve-month study was carried out by the ECNC-European Centre for Nature Conservation (principal contractor and project coordinator), LEI (responsible for the regional economic analysis), the Leibnitz-Zentrum für Agrarlandforschung (responsible for the regional SWOT analysis), Leibnitz Institut für Länderkunde (in charge of demography), the Central European University (contributor to environmental issues) and the European Landowners Organisation (convenor of the internal peer review group).
Scenar 2020 – the report and the technical study– is available on the website of DG Agriculture and Rural Development.
Scenar 2020 should be cited as follows:
Nowicki, P., H. van Meijl, A. Knierim, M. Banse, J. Helming, O. Margraf, B. Matzdorf. R. Mnatsakanian, M. Reutter, I. Terluin, K. Overmars, D. Verhoog, C. Weeger, H. Westhoek (2007). Scenar 2020 - Scenario study on agriculture and the rural world. Contract No. 30 - CE - 0040087/00-08. European Commission, Directorate-General Agriculture and Rural Development, Brussels.
Since its publication, Scenar 2020 has been presented at a number of events, including the Young Farmers Day organised by Commissioner Fischer-Boel in Brussels on April 17, 2007. The live presentation by Peter Nowicki, Project Leader of Scenar 2020 and now also Senior Researcher in the Agricultural and Food Policy Unit at LEI, can be viewed here.
Other events include:
- Presentation for DG Agriculture and Rural Development, January 2007
- Presentation for Mrs Fischer-Boel, European Commission, January 2007
- Scientific Council of the Permanent Council for Maritime Regions, meeting in Coimbra (PT), May 2007
- Lifescape Seminar at the European Central Bank, Frankfurt, June 2007
- Journée Prospective de la Société Française d’Économie Rurale, Paris, June 2007
- Future of Agricultural Research Conference, organized by SCAR (Scientific Committee for Agricultural Research), Brussels, June 2007
- SCENAR2020: The implications for land and labour markets, EU workshop on "Income and factor markets under the 2003 CAP reform", IPTS, Sevilla, 28-29 June 2007.